I had a couple good consistent weeks in the NYSE session. Been working really hard (pulled a 19 day stretch or something, couple half days, couple long weekends hammering to deliver.) So I hit that part of my goal. I still over-traded a bit, broke the “1 trade a day” rule. I was nailing like 90%+ win rate for a good stretch, and of course the cycle is to get over-confident. Last week I ripped it up on BTC, then this week I built it back. I can see BTC on the weekend is far to competitive and low-alpha without a good catalyst, so I’m just posting paper trades to keep my training and analysis under pressure. BTC is such a wicked-hard market to trade, a little tilt and over-confidence will get me forcing positions and over-trading.
Here is a paper trade I’m in right now with analysis.
Update: Nice trade. Can see it broke down after the session close. Them bots are trained well! It’s a weekend, doesn’t matter.
Been trading the same setups mostly, just the high probability math patterns, whatever I see and is validated in regressions etc. VOLD, Tick, Advance decline. Macro winds. Price is kind of the last stop when deciding to take a stab, but I do some pattern trading based on stuff that I know has good probability of at least moving a few pips the right way.
Strategy is basically “auto-pilot” – I don’t have to think or try to figure the markets it out anymore, I can find the entries that don’t carry much risk, and then it’s just ensuring I shut it down if it goes the wrong way. The selection of the trades and self-management become the deciding factor in my PnL. If I’m being hugely disciplined and taking an entry a day, not a bunch of middling trades, then I can put the weight on it. But if I noodle around, when a good setup comes along I’m not going to be sized to capitalize on it.
So I’ve gotta keep that “one trade a day” in focus, and trade a demo account or 10k prop account or something I don’t mind ripping up if I want to trade excessively. I liked having a couple accounts, but I’m just trading the 50k FTMO account after TFT collapsed. By the end of May I’m hoping to get a payout and set myself up to get a 200k or 400k challenge w/ the winnings. Should be feasible, I’d like to go straight for 400k next.
Here are some bits and snippets from the discord of various trade and snippets of reflection. I really have to lock myself down because I see a pattern where I trade super well and then take worse entries until I’m humbled. Gotta keep rested, fed, walked etc. Peak form. It shows in the PnL when I’m put together, and it shows when I’m not 😛
k-xs 
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