I’ve learned from a lot of errors that you can make massive errors trying to predict the future, so I tend to stick very short term. But you can get a really clear perspective that plays out in a shorter timeframe (2-4 days.) Most of the trades I make are very short term, but I’ve been sharing perspectives when I feel they hit a level of clarity. I’ll distribute them to friends, post on discord etc. I’ll sometimes spread it a little farther, but you really can’t account for everything with your human brain, even on very short timeframes.
Periodically the signal is strong, and you gain enough experience, you can make some nice calls. If you look back on this journal, you’ll see two calls of market pivots that were very correct and profitable, and I hope to keep those high-level signals as sparse and as accurate as they have been.
You’ll see them there on the chart. Might not have posted everything here, but you can see I did on the discord for both shift in the market, down from high, and up from NVDA earnings to ATH on S&P and nas.
Is this lucky? What’s the base rate of these “predictions”? Well, I certainly can’t promise I can see that stuff all the time and I barely trade those concepts myself except to guess a trend and try to validate it in the data. Yes, amazing! But I can barely trade those concepts myself as the future is so unknowable that I am constantly, dilligently mitigating risk and taking profit as one error is all it takes to decimate your account.
But yeah, we’re seeing it clearly. I’m intraday, highly risk controlled but I’ll do my best to share those signals with you. If you find my signals like those, the best thing to do is to take it as one perspective, and try to find the quantitative confirmation as you’re trading that the market is thinking the same thing. This can be in VOLD, it can be even in something like TradingView chat giving confirmation that traders are trying to trade the same way. If _everyone_ is that way, beware, but you should see all kinds of signals pointing in line with my analysis, should you chose to hear it. Nobody can predict the future, and one piece of information can unwravel a market faster than you can hope to understand it, so stand dilligent and do not ever assume you are more right than the market. The price is the ultimate truth, the quant and the data is your only truth. Opinions are worthless, and holding drawdown is the road to destruction. But yes, if you are seeing me on Discord or TradingView posting trades, you will already know that if I am telling you my setup, it’s a very thin risk and the best setups will net multiples on the reward compared to the risk. I take lots of trades with thin risk, so you have to keep that in mind if you treat me as signal. I win 40%, but I gain 4:1 on the wins versus the losses.
This is fully quantifiable and I’ve held similar stats for a long time:
Those numbers are skewed a bit as many losses are stops set just under entry, but that’s roughly it. So expect coinflip accuracy but tight risk. Taking either of those signals 4:1 rr would have netted good gains.
Good luck, hopefully the signal I provide maintains this level of quality.
k-xs 
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