It’s been a brutal couple weeks for markets. US CPI came in hot. PPI came in hot. Bad bond auction. FOMC minutes. After trading in these conditions, I think we all just want the bull to come back again. I believe we’ll get another shot of euphoria after NVDA earnings beat today.
NVDA had a decent earnings beat today, Feb 21, 2024, at 4:20PM ET. I stood sweaty palmed catching the ride up into earnings. All over the world traders watched after hours markets and bought with everyone else. When NVDA earnings info started to get digested, and for hours and hours after, the whole world rallied.
And The Whole World Rallied.
I believe this will put a lot of the fear that’s been appearing to bed. I saw pretty clear evidence of large (eg institutional) sell programs in the markets on internals (VOLD.) And we might see those programs continue to run. But if institutions start to put cash back into AI after a night like tonight, I think it’ll be hard to stop this run until some really bad news hits us next.
The rally is so intense, that the USD Dollar Index broke structure. Simply because one of the most important AI-related company is growing and growing and growing.
I’m guessing we’ll see Nasdaq hit all time highs if nothing really scary drops in the news. But we’ll see how things unfold. You cannot predict the unknowable future.
BTC I believe will begin its ascent again, and crypto with it. I have a long on BTC on a challenge account. I closed my Nasdaq longs after earnings before futures close and I went out for food worked before checking anything, so I didn’t see indices I could safely enter after I put the pieces together. I did find BTC touching an AVWAP, tho, and made a quick decision seeing the wick to take a stab at it. And the entry was great! I didn’t risk too much as I wasn’t sure if I’d have to hold any draw down but it went straight into green and I added around the Asia DR floor anticipating it would hit the high of day and stop. I evaluated out of Asia market hours, BTC is now rising further so I’ll hold this trade overnight with a stop and very little risked. If I lose it, all good, onto the next trade!
I struggle with swing trades sometimes because I’m extremely diligent about keeping risk tight. I don’t hold a trade in loss, so I tend to lose swing trades if I try them. I need to practice on a demo account and figure out how to size them with a bunch of reps, but it takes so long to get the feedback loop. I need to hold trades longer when I see a shift, and this time I’m going to try to hold this long until I see a shift. When I do hold a trade eg overnight, I like to wait for a great entry and go harder on it without much draw down, or just skip it. I usually risk really small, .1% is a lot for me to see go on a trade on prop because that’s actually 1% of your account. You need ammo, lots of bullets. 10 or 12 isn’t enough. You need to get through some tough periods without decimating yourself.
Here are the positions in MT4. Spreads aren’t great, but this was really easy to hold and so far so good. I barely had time to think about it after I saw it, had seconds to pull the trigger or I would have sized this up alot.
k-xs 
Leave a comment